Multnomah County, Ore. (April 13, 2026) — The Multnomah County Board of Commissioners has received a final report from the independent advisory group tasked with assessing the long-term financial sustainability of Preschool for All, the County’s universal preschool program funded by a voter-approved marginal income tax on high-income households.
The report from the Technical Advisory Group (TAG) presents findings from more than eight months of analysis and deliberation, including economic modeling from ECOnorthwest. The Chair convened the advisory group in 2025 as required by the 2020 ballot measure that established Preschool for All, in part to determine if a 0.8% increase in the marginal tax “is necessary to fully fund the program.”
The TAG’s modeling reviewed PFA’s financial outlook across a range of economic conditions over a 20-year timeframe. A majority of TAG members said PFA’s tax structure, as currently designed, is likely financially sustainable in nearly every scenario examined — so long as Oregon avoids a recession like the 2008 global financial crisis.
But the analysis cautioned that rising costs for preschool could threaten the program’s sustainability. TAG members noted the County’s baseline assumption that costs will grow just 4% a year may underestimate the reality of the market. They said a target of 5% to 6% would more accurately reflect projected childcare costs nationally.
A majority of TAG members recommended the Board of Commissioners take the following actions by 2030:
- Delay the scheduled tax increase: The 0.8% tax increase currently scheduled for 2027 should be delayed to 2029, then reassessed. Modeling shows the delay does not threaten program solvency under most scenarios.
- Commission a preschool cost study: The County is urged to conduct a cost study to inform future budget and policy decisions because current national market studies do not reflect the true cost of high-quality preschool in Multnomah County.
- Commission a demographic forecasting model: Updated birth and migration data suggest the County should anticipate about 9,800 children participating in public preschool by 2030, which is much lower than original estimations of 13,700.
- Preserve a rainy day fund: The group said PFA should continue to maintain its dedicated reserve to sustain the program for future generations and allow the program to maintain services through economic downturns or reductions in service.
The advisory group also explored a variety of other programmatic and funding proposals, which are detailed in the full report. The complete findings are available online.
The Board will receive a full briefing on the report at 10 a.m. Tuesday, April 14. The briefing can be viewed on the County’s YouTube or in person in the Multnomah County Board Room.
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