Multnomah County, Ore. - Multnomah County's Preschool for All program is close to reaching universal preschool coverage for 3- and 4-year-olds in the County, according to final projections from a new demographic study conducted by Portland State University's Population Research Center.
Preschool for All was already ahead of schedule for reaching universal coverage by the goal date of 2030. This updated population projection shows the program could reach universal coverage much sooner.
“To have the numbers finalized and to know that Preschool for All could reach universal coverage so soon is such a triumph for this program,” said Danisa McLean, Preschool for All director. “This program has remained ahead of the curve from its formation, and regardless of the number of children we serve, we are dedicated to providing them with high quality preschool programs.”
The voter-approved ballot measure that created Preschool for All defines universal coverage as having enough space for every 3- and 4-year-old whose family wants free preschool. The new projection showed that Preschool for All will need to serve around 8,000 of the County’s 3 and 4-year-olds to reach universality. A population estimate created before the pandemic, used during the program’s creation, indicated the necessary number of seats would be closer to 11,000.
Preschool for All’s Technical Advisory Group, an independent advisory group mandated by the ballot measure, recommended earlier this year that the program commission a new demographic forecasting model. Their reasoning was that updated birth and migration data suggest the County should anticipate less children participating in public preschool by 2030, a trend seen across the country as birthrates decline.
The new projections from Portland State University support the Technical Advisory Group's recommendation.
“The underlying demographic shift in Multnomah County toward lower birth rates represents a structural contraction rather than a temporary trend,” said Ethan Sharygin, director of the Population Research Center at Portland State University. “Our tracking shows a persistent decline in the young child population, driven by a 28% decline in regional fertility rates since 2015, and net out-migration of children. The downward trajectory is mirrored in local school districts, where declining kindergarten classes are consistent with our long-term regional outlook.”
Preschool for All uses this demographic data to make programmatic decisions, namely the number of seats needed to serve every 3- and 4-year-old in the county who is not getting supplemented preschool through other programs, like Head Start or Preschool Promise, or whose family will not be seeking preschool.
The projection’s medium-growth scenario, which is what the Preschool for All program will use to inform decisions, projects that just under 14,000 Multnomah County residents are 3 and 4 years old in 2026. The scenario shows that number falling to just over 13,000 by 2030. The County plans to commission updated projections every few years.
Preschool for All uses a formula to determine how many 3- and 4-year-olds the program will need to serve. The County currently assumes that 22.5% of 3- and 4-year-olds are either enrolled in private preschool or have families who are not placing their children in preschool. Additionally, more than 2,000 children are offered free or subsidized preschool through state and federal programs. Based on this revised projection and calculation formula, Preschool for All estimates that it will need around 8,000 seats to attain universality in the coming years. The program was able to offer over 7,000 seats to Multnomah County families this year, the largest expansion in the program’s history.
These updated population projections were used in economic scenario models presented July 21 during a County Board work session. The Board is scheduled to formally vote whether to adopt a recommendation by the Technical Advisory Group to delay a proposed .08% increase in the program’s marginal personal income tax for two years, to 2029 instead of 2027. The economic scenarios showed that with new population estimates, Preschool for All can still operate under the advisory group’s recommended delay.
Chair Jessica Vega Pederson announced at a work session Aug 11 her proposal to adopt the Technical Advisory Group recommendation and seek the two-year delay. The Board will submit other proposals regarding changes to the tax schedule Aug 20, final votes will occur on Aug 27.
About Preschool for All: Preschool for All was approved by voters in 2020. The Multnomah County initiative is dedicated to creating a tuition-free, high quality and culturally responsive preschool system for families of 3- and 4-year-olds. Since first allocating seats in 2022, the program has grown ahead of schedule to reach the goal of universal access by 2030. In 2026 Preschool for All offered a record breaking number of seats, nearly reaching universal coverage. Universal preschool has been shown to increase elementary school readiness for children and improve the local economy. The program creates hundreds of jobs and helps local businesses thrive.
About Portland State University: Portland State University is Oregon’s Urban Research University, located in the heart of downtown Portland. We are the state’s most diverse and affordable public research institution, serving 20,000 students with flexible, applied learning. Guided by our motto "Let Knowledge Serve," PSU empowers graduates to solve local challenges and build a just, sustainable future. Send media inquiries to Katy Swordfisk, PSU Media Relations, katy.swordfisk@pdx.edu.
